The Almanacs vs. NOAA on Colorado’s Winter: Who Should Your Roof Believe?

Every August, three winter forecasts land in Colorado: two from almanacs with formulas they will not show you, and one from a federal agency that publishes its math and prints its uncertainty right on the map. This week completed the set — the Farmers’ Almanac released its 2026–27 outlook on August 21, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its updated long-lead outlook on August 20, and The Old Farmer’s Almanac followed on August 27. The interesting part isn’t that they disagree. It’s where they disagree — and that one of them splits our own service area right down the Continental Divide.

Colorado Doesn’t Get One Almanac Forecast. It Gets Two.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac divides the country into 16 broad forecast regions, and Colorado is not in one of them — it is in two. The Front Range sits in the High Plains region; the high country sits in the Intermountain region. For winter 2026–27 those two regions get opposite snowfall calls.

We checked each of our service cities against the almanac’s own regional listing:

On the plains side, the almanac puts the coldest stretches in early and late January and early and late February, with the snowiest periods in late January and mid-March. On the mountain side, it expects cold in mid- to late December, early and late January and early February, snowiest in late November, late December and early February — and warns the snow “could make for tricky travel at times.”

So on the Old Farmer’s Almanac map, the drive from Fort Collins to Vail crosses from a below-normal-snow winter into an above-normal-snow winter. Same state, same season, same almanac. Nationally its 2027 edition headline is milder-with-exceptions: mostly mild temperatures, wetter than normal across much of the West, and snowier than normal in the Intermountain region, the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Northeast and Alaska. “Winter won’t look the same everywhere this year,” says editor-in-chief Carol Connare. “While much of the country is headed for a milder season, some areas will still see plenty of cold and snow.”

The Other Almanac Survived — and Likes the Mountains Too

The Maine-based Farmers’ Almanac, founded in 1818 and not to be confused with its older New Hampshire rival, nearly didn’t reach this winter at all. In November 2025 it announced that its 2026 edition would be its last, citing financial pressure. Then it was acquired by new owners trading as Farmers’ Almanac LLC, who promised to keep the print tradition alive. The rescue held: the 210th edition is in print, and its 2026–27 winter outlook was published on August 21, prepared as always under the house pseudonym “Caleb Weatherbee.”

Its forecast reads as a national mood rather than a regional table, but the lines that touch Colorado and Wyoming are clear enough. El Niño, it says, will be “an important influence through the heart of the season,” favoring wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern United States — and “the southern Rockies may fare especially well for mountain snowfall.” Across much of the West and the northern Plains it expects temperatures to “average near normal overall,” delivered as fast-moving clippers, sudden cold snaps and brief snowy periods broken up by milder stretches. The northern Plains, it adds, “could turn drier at times, especially when the southern storm track becomes dominant.” Its summary for the country: a winter of “snow, sleet, and surprises.”

Put the two almanacs side by side and they agree about the high country — good mountain snow — and lean the same direction, more vaguely, on the plains.

How an Almanac Makes a Forecast

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says its long-range method blends solar science, climatology, and meteorology, following a formula devised by founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792 — a formula the publisher famously keeps locked away, and which outside meteorologists have never been allowed to evaluate. The forecasts are written up to two years in advance, for 16 broad regions covering the entire country. The Farmers’ Almanac works the same way with a different secret: a formula from founding editor David Young weighing sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull and historical pattern matching, the details of which are, in the publisher’s own words, “not publicly published.”

That’s not a knock on the almanacs’ charm; it’s a description of the product. A years-ahead, region-averaged, methodology-sealed forecast is an entertainment tradition with a weather theme. It is also, as the table above shows, coarse enough that a single line on a map decides whether your town is forecast to get more snow than usual or less.

What NOAA Says (and How It’s Different)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates its seasonal outlook every month, publishes the reasoning, and attaches probabilities instead of certainties. Through the summer its language got steadily less hedged, and by its August 13 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion it had stopped hedging almost entirely: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter — and, for October–December, a 69% chance of what CPC calls “a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.” The official probability tables put the very-strong odds at 95% at the October–December peak, 90% for November–January and 70% for December–February, with a 97% chance El Niño of some strength is still running in early spring 2027. The forecast peak now centers near +2.7°C on CPC’s relative Niño index, where a month earlier it sat just under +2.5°C.

That last part is the story. This is not merely a strong El Niño winter; it is a winter NOAA thinks has better-than-even odds of being the strongest El Niño in the modern record.

For Colorado and southeast Wyoming, the August 20 seasonal outlook puts this region on the wet side of El Niño’s dividing line — the opposite of the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s High Plains call. For this fall, CPC gives its greatest above-normal precipitation chances, higher than 40 percent, to “much of the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great Basin and Central and Southern Rockies” — Colorado included. Heading into the core of winter, above-normal precipitation chances stay modest, generally 33 to 50 percent, across the southern tier and the Central and Southern Plains, with “a northward extension of these modestly elevated above normal precipitation chances… across much of the Plains.” The El Niño dry tilt that usually turns up somewhere in the interior West was, this year, “restricted to inland areas such as the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains during the core winter months.”

That sentence is where our Wyoming division sits: on the line. Northern Wyoming leans into the dry zone; the I-25 and I-80 corridor around Cheyenne is near the boundary rather than inside it. On temperature, CPC has above-normal odds above 50 percent across the northern tier of the country and a more modest 33 to 40 percent tilt reaching south across the eastern Plains. The full region-by-region breakdown — and what each pattern does to a roof — is in our El Niño winter guide.

The honest fine print: seasonal forecasting is hard, and NOAA’s own skill at three-month outlooks is modest — real, measurable, better than chance, but probabilistic by design. The difference is that NOAA tells you exactly how confident it is and shows its work. The almanacs tell you they’re about 80% accurate and keep the formula in a box.

The Scoreboard

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has long claimed its forecasts are about 80% accurate. The best-known independent check — meteorologists John Walsh and David Allen at the University of Illinois, evaluating 60 monthly almanac forecasts across 32 U.S. stations — found the almanac called the direction of temperature departures correctly 50.7% of the time, and precipitation 51.9%: a coin flip. Later spot-checks by broadcast meteorologists have landed in the same neighborhood.

To its credit, the Farmers’ Almanac has become noticeably more candid on this point. Its own published FAQ now reports “80-85% accuracy on regional outlooks” and then immediately concedes that “independent reviews put actual accuracy somewhat lower, but still meaningfully above chance.” That is more honesty than this category usually offers.

Where They Actually Disagree

Strip out the hedging and there is exactly one clean disagreement on the table this year, and it happens to sit over the most populated part of our service area.

All three agree the mountains do well and all three agree it will run warm. The split is the Front Range precipitation call: the Old Farmer’s Almanac says below normal, NOAA leans modestly above normal. If you want a scoreboard to check next April, that is the line to write down.

What Your Roof Should Do With Either Forecast

Here’s the quiet truth: for a homeowner, the forecasts mostly converge on the same to-do list, because roof prep is a no-regrets move in every Colorado winter — and this one carries a NOAA forecast for potentially the strongest El Niño since records begin in 1950:

1. Clean and check gutters before the first hard freeze — ice dams start in clogged gutters. Our seasonal maintenance guide has the fall checklist.
2. Front Range: get summer hail damage fixed before snow sits on it all winter. Note that this is the one call the forecasters disagree about — which is an argument for preparing as though the wetter forecast is right, not the drier one. A bruised shingle under a snow load is how small damage becomes a leak.
3. Mountains: every forecast on the table says above-normal snow up high. Check snow-retention hardware, heat cable, and attic insulation now — the ice-dam physics are in our mountain materials guide, and the prevention list is in our snow-and-ice post.
4. Southeast Wyoming: you sit near the dividing line in NOAA’s outlook and inside the drier half of the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s. Either way wind stays the enemy. Loose ridge caps and lifted shingles now are blow-offs by February.

A fall inspection is the cheap version of all four. Request a free estimate and we’ll tell you what this winter is actually going to test.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict for Colorado’s 2026–27 winter?
It predicts two different winters, because Colorado straddles two of its forecast regions. For the High Plains region — the Front Range, including Fort Collins, Loveland, Greeley, Windsor and Longmont, plus Cheyenne, Wyoming — it forecasts above-normal temperatures, below-normal precipitation and below-normal snowfall, with the snowiest periods in late January and mid-March. For the Intermountain region, covering Colorado’s high country including Vail, Avon and Breckenridge, it forecasts above-normal temperatures but above-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall, snowiest in late November, late December and early February.

What does NOAA predict for Colorado’s 2026–27 winter?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts a very strong El Niño winter — a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event, a 95% chance it peaks in the very-strong class in October–December, a 69% chance that peak is historic (stronger than any El Niño on record since 1950), and a 97% chance El Niño persists into early spring 2027. For Colorado that puts the state on the wetter side of the pattern, with the highest fall odds of above-normal precipitation covering the Central and Southern Rockies, a modest wet tilt continuing across the Plains through winter, and the El Niño dry signal confined to the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains.

How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The almanac claims about 80% accuracy, but the best-known independent evaluation — University of Illinois meteorologists checking 60 monthly forecasts across 32 stations — found it called the direction of temperature departures right 50.7% of the time and precipitation 51.9%: statistically a coin flip. Its charm is real; its forecast skill is not demonstrated.

Is NOAA’s seasonal forecast reliable?
It’s modest and it says so — that’s the point. CPC seasonal outlooks are probabilistic, updated monthly, publicly verified, and materially better than chance when a strong climate signal like El Niño is present. A very strong El Niño is the strongest signal seasonal forecasters get, which makes this winter’s outlook more confident than most.

Did the Farmers’ Almanac go out of business?
Almost. In November 2025 the Farmers’ Almanac, founded in 1818 and the Maine-based rival of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, announced its 2026 edition would be its last, citing financial pressures — then it was acquired by a new owner, Farmers’ Almanac LLC, which committed to continuing the tradition. The rescue worked: the 210th edition is in print and its 2026–27 winter forecast was published on August 21, 2026.

Should I prepare my roof differently because of the almanac forecast?
No — prepare it because of the winter, whichever forecast you read. Gutter cleaning, fixing summer hail damage before snow buries it, checking ice-dam defenses in the mountains, and securing ridge caps in Wyoming are no-regrets moves every year, and doubly so in a year NOAA gives better-than-even odds of a record-strength El Niño.